Administrator ~ January
have not written an Arnold's Ramblings in about a year, but now
I must warn you that it appears as though the DJIA and the S &
P have entered into a bear market and clearly the economy is on
the precipice of a very serious recession. George Soros, whose
investing prowess is extraordinary, is calling this year a
repeat of 2008. arnold would suggest that 2016 will probably be
worse than 2008, and worse yet, the recovery from this
"recession" will be even less than the recovery from
2008. We are heading into a very slow economic period where the
DJIA will probably break the low of 2008 (which was about 6500)
and the economy will be very weak. The real estate market will
also correct and drop ultimately below the lows of 2009-2011.
The next several years will not be pretty and in fact will be
very slow. We are already seeing lower retail sales (except in
autos). But Autonation CEO Mike Jackson announced that sales
were up (to a record) by heavy discounting (which was not
profitable) and that 2016 sales are very weak. While internet
sales were up about 10%, total internet retail sales are under
10% of all retail sales.
It just keeps getting worse
and worse. Layoffs are announced now virtually every day. And
the numbers of laid off employees is growing significantly.
Median incomes of Americans is down over 7% since 2008, and if
you take out the upper 1%, median incomes are down over
arnold's advice is as follows:
you are in the stock market, either sell or at least use stop
losses. DO NOT USE ANY MARGIN!
Do not invest in real estate.
Pay down any and all debt.
If you are looking to start a business, the time will be right
near the bottom, in mid 2017 until early 2018.
Reduce expenses in order to live within your
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